A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
